CalExodus: Are People Leaving California?

POLICY BRIEF: CalExodus: Are People Leaving California? PDF

PRESS RELEASE: New Research: People are Leaving SF, But Not California

Recent news reports, preliminary data, and anecdotes suggest the COVID-19 pandemic is either causing or accelerating an exodus from California. The extent of any such exodus, and whether it proves to be temporary or permanent, is not yet clear — at least not in data sources traditionally used to quantify residential mobility. The stakes are high: significant population shifts could affect the size and composition of regional labor markets as well as rent and home values. Some fear that mass departures by the state’s wealthy could reduce local and state tax revenues, potentially affecting the services governments are able to provide for years to come. This policy brief uses the University of California Consumer Credit Panel (UC-CCP), a new dataset containing residential locations for all Californians with credit history, to track domestic residential moves at a quarterly frequency through the end of 2020.

(photo used under Creative Commons License)

Select Media Coverage
Washington Post: A churning Golden State on the eve of new population numbers (April 24, 2021)
NYT: How the Pandemic Did, and Didn’t, Change Where Americans Move (April 19, 2021)
Capitol Weekly panel: The Future of Work (Evan White, executive director of CPL’s Berkeley site, shared the CalExodus research results during this panel conversation (March 4, 2021)
LAT: Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse — but they are leaving San Francisco, study says (March 4, 2021)
San Jose Mercury News: Exodus: Bay Area migration accelerated in recent months (March 4th, 20201)
CalMatters: Bidding wars and overblown fears: The curious case of the California exodus (March 4, 2021)
Associated Press: Mass 2020 exodus from California did not happen, study says (March 5, 2021)
San Francisco Chronicle: Data keeps piling up: No ‘mass exodus’ from California during pandemic (March 4, 2021)
CNN: No ‘mass exodus’ in California during the pandemic, study finds (March 5, 2021)
The Hill: Study shows there was no ‘mass exodus’ from California last year (March 5, 2021)
California Report: Interview with Natalie Holmes, author of policy brief (March 5, 2021)
KABC News Segment (March 5, 2021)
KCRA News Segment (March 5, 2021)
KTLA News Segment (March 5, 2021)
KGTV News Segment (March 5, 2021)

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