CalExodus: Are People Leaving California?

April 14th, 2022 update: The research team has identified an error in how some 2020 domestic entrances to California were calculated. In particular, data and figures reflecting single-year changes, between 2019 and 2020, potentially understate new entrants to the state. Please see the April 2022 errata for more details. This policy brief will be updated as soon as corrected estimates are available.

POLICY BRIEF: CalExodus: Are People Leaving California? PDF

PRESS RELEASE: New Research: People are Leaving SF, But Not California

Recent news reports, preliminary data, and anecdotes suggest the COVID-19 pandemic is either causing or accelerating an exodus from California. The extent of any such exodus, and whether it proves to be temporary or permanent, is not yet clear — at least not in data sources traditionally used to quantify residential mobility. The stakes are high: significant population shifts could affect the size and composition of regional labor markets as well as rent and home values. Some fear that mass departures by the state’s wealthy could reduce local and state tax revenues, potentially affecting the services governments are able to provide for years to come. This policy brief uses the University of California Consumer Credit Panel (UC-CCP), a new dataset containing residential locations for all Californians with credit history, to track domestic residential moves at a quarterly frequency through the end of 2020.

(photo used under Creative Commons License)



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